ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is one of the worst pandemics in human history. Our research objective is to assess the contagion effect on Japanese firms and to evaluate the Japanese government's COVID-19 measures during the period from April 7, 2020, to May 25, 2020. We propose a susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for COVID-19 and derive COVID-19 parameters for Japan. Subsequently, we analyze the effect of COVID-19 on Japanese firms through correlation-based network and credit risk analyses. The main findings are that the Tokyo Stock Price Index moved in the opposite direction of COVID-19 parameters and COVID-19 parameters are almost the only risk factors that impact a firm's credit risk during the period. Finally, we find that the interconnection analysis between the COVID-19 infection network and the financial networks contribute to the existing pandemic risk management knowledge.
ABSTRACT
This study assesses the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases on the Japanese stock market. As of October 30, 2020, the cumulative number of cases in Japan has reached over one hundred thousand. COVID-19 has significantly affected both the lifestyle and the economy in Japan. First, this study develops composite stock indices by industry sector and prefecture, taking into consideration the effects of the increase in infections on industries and firms in the core prefectures. Second, this study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations between the composite stock index returns and the increment in COVID-19 cases using dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Finally, it can contribute to financial research in terms of coexistence of regional business economies with COVID-19.